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Pakistan, October 14 — The strategic environment in South Asia is primarily shaped by the power balance between two nuclear-armed nations, India and Pakistan. The contentious ties of India with other countries are increasingly fueling ongoing shifts in regional security. In contrast to other areas where mutual growth and collaborative structures are emphasized, South Asia sees India, as the larger nation, adopting a dominant and zero-sum strategy.

India’s strategic perspective focuses on achieving political and military supremacy in the region, which significantly conflicts with the approaches of other regional nations that prioritize economic collaboration, infrastructure development, and peaceful relations. This stance is also evident in India’s handling of disputes with neighboring countries. The Kashmir issue remains a central conflict, with Pakistan seeking resolution according to United Nations Security Council resolutions, whereas India maintains that it can address the situation militarily within the occupied territories of Jammu & Kashmir and extend its influence beyond the borders through military pressure.

South Asia is also experiencing India’s shift towards a more theocratic state, now referring to itself as Bharat—a Hindu nation (India for Hindus only). The Indian political leadership, guided by the BJP, with its Hindutva-oriented ambitions and revisionist strategic perspectives, is increasingly posing a significant challenge to peace and stability in South Asia. The region’s closeness to the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Afghanistan adds layers of complexity to its strategic environment. Major power competition in the Asia-Pacific has allowed India to leverage its importance to U.S. strategic interests, influencing regional stability. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East further complicate the security situation in South Asia. India is taking advantage of Afghanistan’s instability by backing militant groups such as the TTP and BLA against Pakistan. These factors contribute to a complex and changing strategic scenario in South Asia. To understand this, it is also necessary to consider global geopolitical and geostrategic trends.

Global Geo-Strategic Trends

The globe is experiencing the rise of several economic and military power centers within a multipolar world. A shift in the balance of power, focusing on issue-specific alliances, is becoming evident. The breakdown of the global order has led to military strength becoming the new measure of state relations. The killing of Palestinians by Israel, without a significant reaction from the international community, highlights this decline. Israel’s military actions against Iran, such as strikes on nuclear sites protected by the IAEA, have serious consequences for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the UN framework. Pakistan strongly criticized this aggression and took a stand in line with international law, whereas India remained silent.

The growing influence of China and Russia as key global players is playing a more important role in introducing stability to certain regional conflicts. Nonetheless, the international nuclear framework is encountering complex challenges as core arms control treaties are breaking down. Leading nations are upgrading their nuclear capabilities and incorporating disruptive technologies like hypersonic missiles, AI-powered drones, cyber warfare tools, and anti-satellite systems. These advancements make it harder to distinguish between traditional and nuclear conflict, raising the chances of misunderstanding and escalation. These circumstances lead to essential questions regarding the declining importance of diplomatic efforts, the rising dependence on military power, and the consequences for regional strategic balance.

To be concluded