jasdooit

The “LDP-Japan Innovation Party (自維)” coalition government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office on the 21st, is an unusual cooperative relationship known as “extra-cabinet cooperation.” This means that although the Japan Innovation Party is part of the coalition government, its members will not participate as cabinet ministers (ministers). There are evaluations in Japanese political circles that this is an “unstable start” where the government could collapse at any moment and be short-lived.

Prime Minister Takaichi, following the departure of the Komeito Party—her partner in a 26-year alliance—from the coalition government, quickly formed a new alliance with the conservative opposition Japan Innovation Party within ten days and secured victory in the parliamentary prime minister election. However, unlike Komeito, the Japan Innovation Party has implemented a policy prohibiting its members from serving as cabinet officials, such as ministers or vice ministers. It is reported that Takaichi sought “internal cabinet cooperation” to jointly manage state affairs, but the Japan Innovation Party declined this proposal.

The Japan Innovation Party states, “Our involvement in the coalition is not driven by a desire for ministerial roles, but to implement specific policies.” Nevertheless, Japanese political analysts view this non-cabinet collaboration as indicating they can “exit whenever they choose.” It is proposed that they have already prepared an excuse to condemn the LDP and step away when tensions within the government grow.

The source of tension is anticipated to be the Japan Innovation Party’s strict requirement for the coalition: a 10% decrease in the number of legislators. The two parties have agreed to cut the 465 seats in the House of Representatives by 40 to 50 seats during an emergency session of the Diet scheduled for mid-December. The Japan Innovation Party, which is pushing for what it calls “self-amputation reform,” also decreased the number of city and prefectural assembly members when it implemented administrative reforms in Osaka, where it has the largest number of seats.

Prime Minister Takaichi, who urgently required a coalition ally, agreed to the demands of the Japan Innovation Party. Nevertheless, there is already resistance within the LDP, with some stating that “sudden cuts are not feasible.” As the LDP’s decision-making body, the General Council, functions on a consensus basis with approximately 25 members, it is possible that the proposal to decrease the number of lawmakers might not be approved as official party policy. In such a scenario, there are concerns that the coalition could fall apart within two months, resulting in a brief Takaichi administration.

The issue lies in the absence of a prominent individual to act as a mediator between the two factions during disputes. Former Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide of the LDP, who had a sustained close relationship with the Japan Innovation Party, has left Takaichi’s LDP leadership structure. According to the Nikkei, “Japan Innovation Party member Endo Takashi, who was assigned as a presidential advisor, is meant to bridge the two groups, yet his authority is less significant than before.”