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Mount Etna is among the most active volcanoes globally. Situated on Sicily’s eastern coastline, it experiences several eruptions annually – the latest occurring in June of this year.

Although it is somewhat possible to forecast eruptions, a new studypublishedA new forecasting technique presented in Science Advances examines seismic patterns. It may enable earlier and more effective preparedness.

How to predict volcanoes

Scientists currently observe Mount Etna by analyzing seismic, geological, geophysical, and geochemical information, particularly the movement of magma within the upper crust. Based on this, they can estimate if the volcano is likely to erupt soon, as when magma reaches the surface, it turns intolava.But frequently, there isn’t much time between an alert and aneruption.

This recent research presents an alternative approach: examiningearthquakepatterns and molten rock movements at a more profound level.

Earthquakes and volcanic activity are frequently linked. Seismic events take place at the edges of tectonic plates, and Mount Etna lies exactly where the African and European tectonic plates converge. Both minor and major earthquakes can impact the movement of magma within the volcano, possibly affecting its eruptions.

A new method

The research, carried out by scientists from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, examined twenty years of earthquake data fromMount Etna.

Scientists focused on the “b value,” which essentially measures the ratio of small to large earthquakes. They discovered a link between volcanic activity and the b value: the ratio shifted as magma moved through the crust. By charting the “b value” over time, they were able to detect some initial indicators of a volcanic eruption.

“Our findings indicate that observing the b value over time provides a useful means to monitor magma movement from deeper to shallower parts of the plumbing system and could be incorporated into Etna’s multiparametric monitoring system to enhance the evaluation of potential eruptions,” the authors state.

Avoiding catastrophe

Earlier and more precise forecasting is essential for the communities near Etna. According toNASA, nearly one-third of Sicily’spopulation resides on the sides of the volcano. June’seruptionobserved ash clouds reaching 6.5 kilometers in height.

The writers view this new approach as a means to prevent disaster, both atMount Etna and other similar volcanoes.

“The b value might serve as an indicator of volcanic eruptions in other volcanoes where there is a sufficient quantity of earthquakes, potentially resulting in improved handling of volcanic risks and ensuring public safety,” they state.