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The report outlines a continuous series of fatal ambushes primarily carried out by Boko Hara, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), and armed criminal groups.

A recent security analysis has shown that a minimum of 454 Nigerian military personnel lost their lives in ambushes throughout the nation from 2019 to 2025.

A report titled “The Kill Zone,” released by the geopolitical research company SBM Intelligence, outlines a continuous series of fatal ambushes mainly carried out by Boko Haram. Its splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), along with armed bandit groups active in the North-west, North-east, and North-central areas.

As per the report, the majority of ambushes occurred in several critical states, withBornoaccounting for over 60 percent of all documented incidents as ISWAP strengthened its control over certain regions of the state and the Lake Chad area. In the North-west, attacks associated with bandit groups rose significantly from 2020, making Zamfara the epicenter of this violence and Katsina another key area of conflict.

The security situation becomes more complex due to cross-border movements, such as the operations of groups associated with ISSP that utilize weakly controlled borders.

In general, the report indicates that the most affected states include the north-eastern states of Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe, as well as the north-western states of Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara. Additional occurrences were noted in Benue, Kogi, and Niger, with sporadic cases reported in parts of southern Nigeria, such as Abia, Delta, Imo, and Rivers.

SBM Intelligence observed that militant groups have broadened their methods over time. Starting in 2019, rebels began using IEDs more frequently, carrying out multi-phase attacks, and setting up fake roadblocks. By 2023, aggressors were not only attacking patrols but also concentrating on senior officials and key transport movements. The report highlights the use of commercially available drones modified for monitoring and explosive assaults, indicating a greater level of operational capability.

A major strategic shift has seen their activities extend to encircling the Nigerian military’s “supercamps” or forward operating bases by demolishing critical infrastructure like bridges and roads to block supply lines.

“Additionally, they have integrated explosive-equipped commercial drones into their capabilities and create high-quality propaganda films, showing an increasing degree of structure and outside support. The seriousness of this danger was clearly demonstrated in November 2021, when Brigadier-General Dzarma Zirkusu was killed in a significant attack near Askira Uba, Borno,” the report mentioned,

Notable attacks and a change in focus towards police officers

The report also mentioned that during the period being examined, there was an increase in attacks targeting high-ranking military officials. One of the incidents cited was the ambush in Goniri, Yobe, in March 2020, which resulted in the deaths of 70 soldiers, marking one of the most severe single losses in recent times.

ISWAP carried out two notable assassinations. Colonel D.C. Bako was killed in Damboa in September 2020 and was later honored posthumously, while Brigadier General Dzarma Zirkusu was slain in Askira/Uba Local Government Area of Borno State in November 2021.

The pattern persisted in 2023 with a bandit attack in Munya, Niger, which resulted in the death of a Major, three soldiers, and four vigilantes. In June 2025, synchronized bandit attacks in Niger and Kaduna claimed the lives of at least 17 soldiers. In November 2025, ISWAP carried out an ambush that led to the killing of Brigadier General Musa Uba in Damboa, representing another significant setback for the armed forces.

Brigadier-General UbaThe convoy was returning from missions near the Sambisa Forest when militants launched an attack, resulting in the deaths of two soldiers and two Civilian JTF personnel. ISWAP subsequently released promotional materials asserting that they took Mr. Uba alive during the ambush, questioned him, and eventually killed him.

Despite the Nigerian Army initially refuting claims of his kidnapping, President Bola Tinubu eventually publicly verified Mr. Uba’s death, recognizing the growing intricacy of militant assaults in the area.

“From 2023 to 2025, additional improvements were noted, with a distinct shift towards highly focused ambushes targeting senior officers and essential security convoys. This final stage has been marked by a significant increase in tactical skills, including the use of commercial drones for monitoring and attacks, as well as synchronized strikes meant to cut off military bases by blocking their entry points,” the report mentioned.

SBM Intelligence noted that the Nigerian armed forces addressed the growing threat by implementing the “super camp” approach, gathering troops in bigger bases. However, the report indicates this method led to an issue. Although the camps were designed to provide security, they resulted in losing control over extensive rural regions to militants, and in certain instances, the camps turned into significant targets.

The armed forces also enhanced air-ground cooperation and placed greater reliance on CJTF and volunteer groups for intelligence gathering and patrols. SBM points out that although these actions have hindered certain attacks, they have also put civilian helpers at risk of fatal ambushes and led to a higher number of casualties overall.

Challenges

The study highlighted a number of underlying issues that keep affecting counterinsurgency efforts. As per the organization, these consist of a lack of mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles (MRAPs), deficiencies in surveillance, difficult deployment environments, and problems with support and rotation plans.

The report states that operational efficiency has also been impacted by corruption and the improper handling of funds designated for weapons and equipment.

Regional security framework also deteriorating

As per SBM Intelligence, the decline of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), after Niger’s exit and decreased involvement from Chad, has led to gaps in operations along Nigeria’s borders.

These disparities have been taken advantage of by both extremist and criminal organizations for movement, protection, and replenishment, according to the report.

The report stated that Nigeria is currently facing a conflict that has evolved from territorial fighting into a prolonged war of endurance. It recommends enhanced intelligence and monitoring, increased safety for patrol teams and installations, greater coordination with local defense groups, and immediate changes to boost soldier morale and institutional credibility.

SBM Intelligence stated that its predictions are based on a mix of past data, feedback from involved parties, and open-source information, such as regulatory bodies, research collaborators, trade associations, news articles, and governmental organizations.

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Tagged: Nigeria, West Africa

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