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With the Africa Cup of Nations 2025 moving into the elimination phase, data-based prediction systems have revised their expectations for the tournament champion, and Morocco continues to be the top contender even after a mixed beginning in the competition.

Statistical models from Opta and Football Meets Data, which use thousands of simulations incorporating team performance, recent form, and bracket complexity, both rank the host nation at the top of their forecasts. Morocco’s strong 3–0 victory against Zambia in the final group stage match seems to have notably improved its position in the models.

Based on Opta’s simulations, Morocco is projected to win the competition in approximately 23 percent of cases. This puts the Atlas Lions in the lead over a tight group that includes Algeria, Senegal, and Egypt, each with just over 13 percent. Nigeria comes next with around a 10 percent probability, while Ivory Coast and Cameroon are positioned lower in the rankings.

Football Meets Data provides a more robust support for Morocco’s prospects. According to its predictions, the host country has almost a 40 percent chance of winning the title, twice as much as Senegal, which stands at approximately 20 percent. Algeria follows but with a significant gap, while Nigeria, Egypt, and Ivory Coast are in a tight range between 4 and 5 percent.

Although there are variations in the percentages, both platforms concur on a crucial aspect: teams viewed as underdogs, like Tanzania, Mozambique, Sudan, and Benin, have minimal prospects of winning, even if they manage to reach the round of 16.

The elimination matches are planned between January 3 and January 6, with the championship game scheduled for January 18. It is unclear if Morocco’s statistical advantage will result in a trophy. As previous tournaments have demonstrated, AFCON frequently goes against logic and forecasts, creating opportunities for unexpected outcomes once the matches are played rather than determined by calculations.

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