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During the Peloponnesian War, when Athens fought against Sparta, it sent forces to the small city of Melos. Melos requested, “We will not choose a side,” yet Athens refused to budge. “The powerful act as they please, and the weak must obey,” it proclaimed, leading to the destruction of Melos. All the men were killed, while the women and children were sold into slavery. The Melian Dialogue may be the earliest documented example of the nature of international politics: a small country “is crushed if it resists a major power.” The message of the Mongol Empire to the weak was equally straightforward: “Completely surrender or face destruction.” The Mongols always carried out this policy.

▶The conflict between Hungary and the Ottoman Empire took place. Hungary referred to itself as the “shield of the Christian world” and viewed the Ottomans as “infidels.” Despite the increasing strength of the Ottoman Empire, Hungary regarded the sultan as a minor ruler. When the Ottomans issued a warning, saying, “Those who defy our authority will be destroyed,” Hungary, relying on Christian backing, decided to “resist.” The outcome was the death of the Hungarian king and the swift downfall of the kingdom in just one day.

▶In 1990, Iraqi leader Hussein invaded Kuwait. Attacking a U.S.-friendly country to seize its oil was seen as a violation of America’s “red line.” Although the U.S. issued a warning, stating, “If you don’t withdraw, you will face serious consequences,” Hussein responded, “The U.S. will run away without even putting on their shoes.” He thought the U.S. was unable to engage in warfare because of the “Vietnam War trauma” and chose to ignore them. Hussein was defeated within 100 hours and eventually died over a decade later. Following the 9/11 attacks, when Pakistan did not adequately support the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the U.S. famously warned, “We will send you back to the Stone Age.”

▶Not long after the capture of the Venezuelan president, the White House shared a social media post featuring a black-and-white image of Trump in the background, with the message “FAFO.” This stands for “Mess with us and find out (F*** Around and Find Out).” While crude, it clearly reflects the harsh realities of international politics. Everyone is aware of this but avoids expressing it so directly. However, this same Trump is also known by the nickname “TACO,” meaning “Trump Always Chickens Out.” In reality, he tends to be cautious when dealing with powerful nations like China and Russia.

▶ Observing Athens’ massacre of Melos, nearby cities united with Sparta. This resulted in Athens’ defeat and downfall. At the same time, Hungary, oblivious to major-power politics, moved away from the center of history, and Iraq continues to experience chaos today. Not only Trump, but also Xi Jinping and Putin are engaging in “FAFO.” The global order has entered a time of turmoil.