As Sudan’s conflict approaches its fourth year, the nation is entering a more perilous stage, with no indication of a military triumph or political resolution. The fighting has become entrenched in Kordofan, leaving millions suffering from food shortages, displacement, and deteriorating services. Political and humanitarian analyst Ahmed Kadwa cautioned that Sudan is at “a real and dangerous crossroads,” as the war increasingly centers on expanding control over territories rather than securing a decisive outcome.
In an interview with Radio Dabanga yesterday, he mentioned that conflict has increased in recent weeks, especially in Kordofan, leading to the displacement of over 65,000 individuals in just the last two months.
Kadwa stated that both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are still attacking regions.under their control. He cited drone attacksRegarding the Merowe Dam and air strikes in various areas of Darfur. Cities in South Kordofan, including Delling and Kadugli, are still under attack, according to him, enduring extremely harsh conditions with evident signs of starvation.
‘Worsening famine’
Over 33 million people in Sudan are currently experiencing severe food shortages, marking Sudan as one of the most critical humanitarian emergencies globally. Kadwa stated to Radio Dabanga that conditions are expected to worsen following the World Food Programme’s announcement to reduce food supplies starting in January 2026 because of a significant lack of funding.
“The cuts will amount to 70 per cent in regions affected by famine and 50 per cent in areas vulnerable to it,” he stated, cautioning about anunprecedented humanitarian collapse in the coming months.
‘No military horizon’
After almost three years of conflict, Kadwa stated that there is no feasible chance of a military solution for either party. He mentioned that Sudan has effectively split on the ground, amidcontinued fighting and widespread exhaustion.
‘Faltering politics’
Kadwa mentioned the African Union’s backing of a proposal introduced in December byPrime Minister Kamil El Tayeb Idris, which involved an internationally supervised truce and the withdrawal of the RSF into camps. The RSF turned down the offer.
He also referred to a collaborationAfrican Union and UAE issue a joint statement African Union and UAE express concerns African Union and UAE announce collaboration African Union and UAE address common issues African Union and UAE meet to discuss matters African Union and UAE raise key topics African Union and UAE hold discussions African Union and UAE highlight shared goals African Union and UAE emphasize cooperation African Union and UAE convene on critical mattersin favor of an unconditional humanitarian ceasefire, which the Sudanese Foreign Ministry rejected, leading to criticism from civil and political groups who challenged the impartiality of regional mediation.
Kadwa mentioned the newly declared civilianCairo Chartermarks a constructive move, highlighting the importance of a cohesive civilian effort for any upcoming peace initiative.
‘Three scenarios’
Kadwa presented three potential situations. The first, and most optimistic, involves the achievement of ongoing diplomatic initiatives to establish a humanitarian ceasefire that might result in a lasting truce, referencing recentSaudi and US diplomatic activity.
The second situation involves an armed deadlock, with unchanging battle lines in Kordofan and an effective split of the nation, resulting in a divided and incapacitated state.
The third, and most severe, situation involves a long-lasting conflict characterized by increasing regional involvement and the complete breakdown of the Sudanese government.
‘Urgent priorities’
Kadwa informed Radio Dabanga that the top priority is a full halt to fighting, the establishment of humanitarian corridors, and a lasting ceasefire. “Hunger has turned into a daily situation in many regions,” he stated, urging unified regional and global pressure, a defined schedule, and real action.monitoring mechanismsto avoid additional delay and loss of life
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Tagged: Sudan, East Africa
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