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Although China finished as the second-place team in the 2026 U23 Asian Cup, they still placed lower than Vietnam, who came in third, in the overall standings of the tournament’s history.

In the 2026 U23 Asian Cup, China created history by advancing to the championship match for the first time, ultimately finishing as runners-up following a defeat by Japan. This path generated significant hope among football supporters in the nation, who now believe that the younger players have the potential to secure a spot in the 2028 Olympics. Following years of fluctuating performance, this accomplishment was regarded as a significant milestone for the country’s football development.

Nevertheless, Chinese media swiftly returned that enthusiasm to reality.

Baidu pointed out that despite having defeated Vietnam 3-0In the tournament’s semifinals, their position in the U23 Asian Cup history stayed below that of their opponent. At 14th, China are five spots behind Vietnam.

China (in white jersey) faces Vietnam in the U23 Asian Cup semifinals on January 20, 2026. Photo by AFC

If both teams take part in the 2028 U23 Asian Cup, which also functions as the Olympic qualification tournament, Vietnam would gain an edge. Based on the seeding arrangement, Vietnam is expected to be in the top-seeded group, whereas China is more probable to end up in the third group. This implies they could face a challenging group stage.

According to Baidu, consistency plays a crucial role in Vietnam’s high total score. They made it to the quarterfinals in 2022 and 2024, then achieved a bronze medal in 2026. This steady performance over the last three competitions has earned them enough points to qualify for the top-seeded group in the region.

China has created challenges for itself because of past difficulties. In 2022, they pulled out and gained no points. In 2024, the team managed only one draw and two losses during the group stage, leaving them with just one point. Consequently, while finishing as runners-up in 2026 is significant, it does not fully make up for earlier shortcomings.

As per the rules set by the Asian Football Confederation, the seeding is determined by the outcomes of the last three competitions, with weights assigned as 100%, 50%, and 25%. Consequently, the overall ranking dictates the seeding.

Based on the rankings, Vietnam might find itself in a strong group alongside Japan, Uzbekistan, and South Korea, whereas China would likely be in a less competitive group with teams such as the UAE, Thailand, or Jordan, a distinction that could greatly influence their path to the Olympics.