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As Kenya approaches its first commercial oil production, a lingering question remains: what did the Early Oil Pilot Scheme (EOPS) actually achieve, and was it worthwhile?

The debate has come back with increased intensity as the country moves closer to a December 2026 production goal. Many Kenyans continue to question why EOPS, carried out between 2018 and 2019, did not result in lower fuel costs or immediate financial benefits. These inquiries are reasonable. I have also examined them closely.

To answer them honestly, we need to be clear from the beginning. EOPS was never intended to be a commercial oil production project. It was a technical pilot, carried out deliberately to test, learn and reduce risks associated with Kenya’s first oil development before investing billions of dollars in full-field production.

When Kenya’s oil history is eventually documented, EOPS is expected to be recognized as the second most significant milestone following the 2012 oil discovery in the South Lokichar Basin. Not because it generated revenue, but because it enabled the country to prevent much more expensive errors.

The EOPS was introduced under the Early Oil Pilot Scheme Agreement signed between the government and the Kenya Joint Venture consortium, which includes Tullow Oil, Total, and Africa Oil Corporation. It was executed during the exploration and appraisal stage, when there were still considerable uncertainties regarding the reservoir, logistics, and market access.

For a cost of $62.73 million, the initiative’s goal was technical and operational: to collect subsurface information, test production systems, verify logistics, and create real-world data to back a future field development strategy. These are exactly the issues that cannot be resolved through paper alone.

One of the most enduring misunderstandings is that EOPS was intended to reduce fuel prices. It was incapable of doing so, either by its design or the scale of its operations. Kenya consumes approximately 110,000 barrels per day of refined petroleum products. EOPS involved small, one-time crude oil export shipments. Furthermore, the oil produced was crude, not refined. Even at maximum pilot production, the quantities were insignificant compared to national consumption.

Globally, initial oil pilot projects are considered learning investments. They typically do not produce profits. Their importance comes from reducing risks associated with multi-billion-dollar developments by uncovering technical, operational, and commercial challenges at an early stage. In this regard, Kenya’s EOPS functioned precisely as expected.

In technical terms, the system provided essential subsurface and well performance information. It enabled engineers to adjust reservoir and production models and verify the concept under actual operational conditions.

This information now supports the field development plan submitted by Gulf Energy E&P BV, which is currently being reviewed by parliament and involves public participation. In practical terms, EOPS data serves as the foundation for the short-term development of the South Lokichar Basin and will continue to guide operations well beyond the initial commercial oil production.

Beyond the reservoir, EOPS tested what often dictates success or failure in frontier oil projects: logistics and infrastructure. The initiative spurred improvements to roads in Turkana, including the replacement of the Kainuk Bridge.

It evaluated long-distance crude transportation, storage, and export systems, offering valuable operational insights for national and local governments before large-scale implementation.

At its peak, EOPS generated as many as 2,000 barrels of crude oil daily from the Amosing and Ngamia fields. The oil was conveyed via heated, insulated tankers to the storage facilities of Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited in Mombasa. From there, 414,777 barrels were sold and marketed competitively on the global market.

Kenya’s crude oil reached a price discovery point with a difference of approximately -$3.5 (Sh451) compared to Brent, a globally recognized benchmark. This demonstrated that Kenyan crude is viable in the market and offered initial information on how it would be valued internationally.

Two export shipments were sold: one delivered in August 2019 to ChemChina UK Ltd and another in September 2022 to Glencore Singapore Pte Ltd, resulting in total revenue of $28.34 million.

The financial result is widely recognized. Having spent $62.73 million and generated sales revenue of $28.34 million, EOPS experienced a shortfall of $34.38 million. This amount, nevertheless, should be viewed within its proper context.

A significant portion of the expenses relates to past exploration costs, along with development and operational costs including production, transportation, logistics, storage, marketing, and port fees.

In contrast to a full-field development estimated to cost several billion dollars, the pilot’s cost serves as a calculated insurance fee. The other option would have been to move forward without caution into commercial production, thereby exposing the country to much greater technical and financial dangers.

Importantly, EOPS also developed local expertise. It confirmed Kenya’s ability to manage crude transportation, storage, and export processes while educating local staff and enhancing collaboration structures with communities and organizations. These are essential elements that cannot be rushed once commercial production starts.

Today, Parliament is reviewing the field development plan and production sharing contracts for Blocks T6 and T7. The goal is evident: to move forward with development based on solid technical approaches, strong environmental protections, measurable local advantages, and competitive financial terms, all within the bounds of the law and under transparent supervision.

EOPS did not guarantee immediate results. It promised education, and it provided exactly that.

As Kenya progresses toward its first commercial oil production, we do so with improved data, proven systems, enhanced market understanding, and more robust institutional preparedness. That is the quiet yet lasting legacy of the Early Oil Pilot Scheme, and it is why it continues to be an essential part of Kenya’s oil development story.

The writer serves as the Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum.