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• A survey conducted by a Swiss Poll involving 4,037 participants, published on August 20, assessed public opinion before Kenya’s 2027 General Election.
• Kalonzo Musyoka received 22% national support, surpassing Sifuna’s 13%, Matiang’i’s 11%, and Gachagua’s 6% among rival candidates.
• The survey revealed that the Kalonzo-Sifuna-Matiang’i alliance received the largest combined opposition backing, totaling 44%

Amos Khaemba, a reporter for .co.ke, has more than four years of expertise in reporting on political and contemporary issues in Kenya.

Nairobi– A recent Swiss Poll survey has placed Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at the forefront of the opposition presidential race, with findings indicating a generational split that may influence Kenya’s political scene before the 2027 General Election.

The survey, carried out from July 25 to August 6, 2026, included 4,037 participants who were selected through stratified random sampling, utilizing two data collection techniques: Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) and Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI).

The sample consisted of 51.6% females and 48.4% males, with a margin of error of ±3.4% at a 95% confidence level. Results were published on Thursday, August 20.

Kalonzo is in the lead, yet unity among the opposition is crucial

Among the opposition candidates who were surveyed, Kalonzo received 22% nationwide support, leading former ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna with 13%, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i with 11%, and former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua with 6%.

The data appears more distinct when focusing on respondents who described themselves as anti-Ruto voters. In this group, 41% favored Kalonzo as the opposition candidate, versus 26% for Sifuna, indicating that he has the strongest support among voters looking for an alternative to President William Ruto.

During the testing of coalition setups, a three-person alliance consisting of Kalonzo, Sifuna, and Matiang’i garnered 44% backing, which was the top result observed among all opposition groupings surveyed.

The Gen Z voting bloc becomes a key factor

Although Kalonzo has a numerical edge, the poll reveals a generational trend that no opposition candidate can ignore. Approximately 58% of Sifuna’s supporters are between the ages of 18 and 35, establishing him as the candidate with the most significant support among young voters.

This demographic profile adds strategic importance to Sifuna, surpassing his general national popularity. Although Kalonzo has well-established opposition backing and regional credibility, Sifuna symbolizes the youth mobilization power that played a significant role in the 2024 anti-Finance Bill demonstrations.

The survey results also highlight unique advantages for the other candidates. Matiang’i’s experience in the Cabinet is portrayed as a valuable executive background, whereas Gachagua’s stance is seen as potentially beneficial in the ongoing political shifts within the Mount Kenya area.

Collectively, the survey indicates that no individual from the opposition has sufficient backing to launch a viable independent presidential campaign.

The route to becoming competitive, as the data indicates, involves forming alliances that combine Kalonzo’s nationwide opposition support, Sifuna’s attraction to younger voters, and the regional factors linked to both Matiang’i and Gachagua.