On the 20th, the Ministry of National Defense stated in response to a statement released the previous evening by Kim Yo-jong, department director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea: “If additional provocations are carried out under the pretext of our legitimate measures, we will respond with resolute punishment.” Kim Yo-jong claimed that the South Korean military’s warning broadcasts and warning shots in response to North Korean troops crossing the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) were “acts of escalating tensions” and mentioned considering the “augmented deployment of tactical strike assets” and “resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts toward the South.”
JCS Chairman Jin Yong-sung, who visited the 5th Corps Command responsible for the central frontline that day, stated that Kim Yo-jong’s statement “irresponsibly shifted blame for military tension escalation onto our military by labeling our legitimate operational measures as provocations” and called it “unacceptable.”
◇Warning Shots Failing to Stop MDL Intrusions
In her October 19 statement, Kim Yo-jong revealed that the South Korean military had conducted “2,870 warning broadcasts and 201 warning shots” in response to provocations. The South Korean military issues warning broadcasts when North Korean troops approach the MDL and opens fire when they cross it. If warning shots were fired every time, this would imply that North Korea crossed the MDL over 200 times since August.
A military source told reporters that day, “North Korean troops were counting our warning broadcasts and warning shots,” adding, “This shows they are aware of our actions.” However, criticism persists that these warnings are insufficient to deter MDL intrusions.
The South Korean military fires warning shots toward pre-designated targets within the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on our side, not in the direction of North Korean troops. A military official explained, “Since the shots are only meant as ‘warnings,’ North Korean troops might conclude after repeated experiences that they are not dangerous.”
Kim Yo-jong disclosed in her statement that between the 15th and 17th, the South Korean military conducted 60 warning shots in the 21st Division area. This implies that even with nearly 20 warning shots per day, North Korean troops continued their operations without regard.
◇“Multiple Changes Near Northwestern Islands”
Recently, North Korean troops have reportedly been erecting fences and laying mines along the West Sea coastline. During a parliamentary audit of the Navy and Marine Corps, Marine Corps Commander Joo Il-seok stated, “While I cannot disclose specifics, there are multiple changes in the 4th Corps area opposite the northwestern islands.” He added, “We are reinforcing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) equipment and maintaining readiness.” The northwestern islands, including Baengnyeongdo and Yeonpyeongdo, are located approximately 10 km from Janggangcheng and Ongjin Peninsula, where North Korean artillery units are deployed. Concerns persist that North Korea might deploy multiple rocket launchers and long-range artillery in the area.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un described the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea, which serves as a de facto maritime border, as a “ghost line with no international legal basis or legitimacy” in February 2024. In response, Navy Chief of Staff Kim Kyung-ryul stated that day, “If North Korea violates the NLL, our military will immediately and decisively repel them according to procedures.”
◇“Loudspeaker Broadcasts Toward North Korea Not Ruled Out”
A Ministry of National Defense official remarked that day, “If North Korea resumes loudspeaker broadcasts toward the South, wouldn’t proportional responses be necessary?” This suggests that South Korea might consider resuming its own loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North if North Korea does so.
However, within the military, there are criticisms that the government has repeatedly lost ground in psychological warfare with North Korea since the landmine explosion incident last month. While the Ministry of National Defense claimed that removing some landmines planted by North Korea was a “resolute response,” North Korea not only refused to apologize but also brought up the “resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts toward the South” as a countermeasure.
A military official stated, “There needs to be a ‘solution’ for how to stop North Korea’s activities near the MDL, but the command is only reiterating the principle of ‘resolute response if additional provocations occur.’”
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