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Nigeria’s downstream oil market is experiencing significant structural changes, with the overall supply of Premium Motor Spirit – PMS increasing by 6.8% to 47.4 million liters per day in May 2026.

As per the most recent information from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority – NMDPRA, local refineries have emerged as the primary fuel supplier in the country. Domestic production made up almost 88% of the overall market, supplying 41.5 million liters daily.

Although it maintained its domestic control, petrol imports rose significantly by 59.5% compared to the previous month—reaching 5.9 million liters per day, up from 3.7 million liters in April—as oil suppliers filled ongoing supply shortages by adding to local production.

The increase in local manufacturing was solely fueled by private funding, with the Dangote Refinery taking the lead. The plant continued to hold its leading market position by providing 41.5 million liters daily in May, compared to 40.7 million liters in April, while functioning at an impressive average capacity usage rate of 101.25%.

Other private entities also played a role in the downstream sector, with the Edo Refinery functioning at 91.66% of its capacity, WalterSmith at 65.31%, and Aradel at 62.94%. In contrast, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company – NNPC’s Warri and Kaduna refineries were entirely non-operational, reporting no output even though rehabilitation processes are still underway.

Interestingly, the increase in fuel availability took place even though there was a temporary disruption in the delivery of domestic feedstock. Refiners received an average of 578,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) in May, showing a 5.6% decrease compared to the 612,000 bpd seen in April. This decline happened even as Nigeria’s overall upstream sector demonstrated resilience; the country’s average daily crude oil output actually rose by 41,000 bpd from the previous month, reaching 1.530 million bpd. This production achievement represents Nigeria’s first return above its official OPEC quota since mid-2025, indicating a wider recovery within the nation’s energy industry.

A historical review of the first five months of 2026 highlights a lasting move away from reliance on foreign fuel, despite variations in imports from month to month. In January, Nigeria depended largely on imports of 24.8 million liters per day, which then decreased to 3 million liters in February, and later settled at 5.9 million liters in both March and May. In total, the amount of imported gasoline has declined by about 76% from January to May.

Although the May recovery indicates that additional imports are still needed for short-term stability, the broader data shows a sector increasingly achieving independence through private domestic refining.