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Russia asserts that it has taken control of Pokrovsk. As per Ukrainian and Western analysts, combat for the city is still ongoing. How is the scenario unfolding, and what risks are present for the nearby town of Myrnohrad?

As discussions continue about the US’ strategy to conclude the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has declared the seizure of the cities of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk within the Donetsk area. The Ukrainian administration refutes these claims and labels Russia’s statements as propaganda.

Who holds authority over Pokrovsk?

On December 1, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, referencing a report from Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, to Russian President Vladimir Putin, stated that “Krasnoarmeysk,” the former Soviet name for the city still utilized by Russia, had been taken. Ukraine changed the name of “City of the Red Army” to Pokrovsk in 2016.

However, on December 2, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that it had not discovered proof of the “full Russian takeover of Pokrovsk.” On the same day, a high-ranking NATO representative informed reporters in Brussels that more than 95% of the city was under Russian authority. They mentioned that there were “still a few small areas within the city where some Ukrainian troops are still offering resistance.” They further noted that Ukraine had “managed to implement actions so that the capture of Pokrovsk would not have the same strategic significance it would have had if it had happened according to the Russian schedule.”

The Ukrainian armed forces claim that they are managing the circumstances. On December 1, they stated that although the conditions are challenging, the military is countering enemy assaults in the Pokrovsk region.

“Our troops are getting ready for their duties this winter. We are reinforcing our positions and providing them with the necessary equipment. Last month, the enemy’s attempt to take over the Pokrovsk metropolitan area once more ended in failure,” stated the Airborne Assault Forces. According to Dmytro Lykhoviy, a spokesperson for the General Staff, as of December 3, the northern section of the city along the railway remained under Kyiv’s control.

Stage performance for Steve Witkoff?

To substantiate the claimed occupation of Pokrovsk, the Kremlin shared a video depicting soldiers raising the Russian flag in the city’s center. However, military analyst Jan Matveyev stated that this did not confirm the city’s current capture, as Russia had previously taken control of the area. He suggested that the footage was a staged performance intended for the visit of U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow.

As per Roman Pohorily and Ruslan Mykula of the Ukrainian analytical initiative DeepState, combat has moved towards the northern section of the city in recent weeks: “Earlier, the Russians would move in groups of two or three only to be neutralized on the northern edges of the city, but now they are advancing in groups of four or five. This indicates that there are currently so many Russians in the city center that they can move forward in organized groups,” Mykula mentioned.

Because of a shortage of ground troops, he said, they had not yet managed to fully push Ukrainian forces out of the city, but this was “just a matter of time” since there were more Russians than Ukrainians.

Pohorily mentioned that the Ukrainian strategy of continuously “disabling” individual Russian soldiers was not viable. While Ukrainian forces managed to regain certain roads or regions, Russian troops would eventually come back as the supply routes from the south were still available. “They have a significant number of troops stationed there. Therefore, this approach will not truly address the issue,” he forecasted.

Austrian military specialist Markus Reisner also verified that Ukrainian troops continued to hold onto remote homes on the city’s periphery and were fighting back against Russian efforts to overcome their resistance using glide bombs. “However, from a military perspective, the city has already been lost,” he mentioned.

What about Myrnohrad?

As per DeepState specialists, the result in Pokrovsk will also influence the future of Myrnohrad, located approximately 7 kilometers (4.34 miles) away. Although there is a much smaller Russian presence in the city, they noted that the conditions there are even more perilous: “Logistics remain operational in Pokrovsk,” stated Mykula. “However, it is nearly impossible to enter or exit Myrnohrad, despite the city not being physically encircled.”

Ukrainian forces in the area were equipped with drones and ground robots, according to Pohorily, who noted that it was already highly perilous to enter or exit the city on foot. “If Pokrovsk is captured, the Russians will have control over all movements,” he cautioned. “I’m unsure how Ukrainian troops would manage to leave Myrnohrad in that scenario.”

He and Mykola mentioned that street fighting was rare in Myrnohrad. Rather, Russian forces were moving toward the city’s edges from the north, south, and east, and frequently bombarding and rocketing the center to push out Ukrainian troops.

“For instance, in the southeast, there is a location from which they deploy drones. This indicates that they have achieved considerable success in the southern area of Myrnohrad,” said Pohorily. He mentioned that Russians had repeatedly managed to infiltrate the villages of Rivne and Svitle, situated between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Could Russia capture the entire Donetsk area?

Pohorily stated that “only a miracle” could still rescue the situation in Ukraine, and under these conditions, “the primary focus is on preserving human lives.” Nevertheless, he avoided making any predictions regarding the impact of losing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad on the rest of the Donetsk region.

For Mykula, seizing the cities probably facilitated the Russians’ ability to launch attacks on the remaining free areas of the region. “All of their [Russia’s] supply lines will focus on these cities, which will become strongholds,” he stated, noting that thousands of troops could subsequently be deployed there.

A senior NATO representative mentioned earlier also forecasted that should Pokrovsk be seized, the Russians would utilize the city “for logistical purposes and as a base to launch assaults on other cities in Donetsk.” However, they noted that the “fall of Pokrovsk would not signal an immediate breakdown of Ukrainian defenses, which we still consider unlikely in the short term.” They stated it was not a “plausible scenario” for the Russians to capture the rest of the Donetsk region “for at least another year or two.”

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War also question whether the capture of Pokrovsk would notably speed up Russia’s takeover of the remaining parts of the Donetsk area.

This article was first published in Ukrainian.

Author: Anastasia Shepeleva