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The French Meteorological Service has launched an investigation to find out if their weather-related facilities were attacked by people aiming to affect prediction markets.

This advancement comes after reports of extremely unusual temperature surges that led to substantial financial payoffs on the blockchain platform Polymarket, where individuals bet on real-life occurrences.

Authorities are investigating whether the reliability of the national weather network was compromised via physical or cyber means, as the accuracy of the successful wagers implies that those involved might have had direct access to the recorded data.

Unconfirmed online claims suggest that the temperature reading was altered by an individual who used a hair dryer to produce a higher reading.

Polymarket is said to resolve temperature wagers in Paris using data from one Météo-France station located close to the Charles de Gaulle airport.

On 6 April, the sensor reading suddenly increased by 4°C within twelve minutes, surpassing the 22°C mark even though other data sources indicated different values.

A trader on Polymarket placed a strong wager on temperatures exceeding 21°C on that particular day, despite the general expectation being 18°C, and earned nearly €30,000.

A second comparable irregularity took place on April 19, raising concerns that the sensor had been interfered with.

Météo-France stated that it has submitted a report to the Roissy air transport gendarmerie unit “regarding the disruption of an automated data processing system,” following an examination of sensor information.

Polymarket stopped using the affected weather data provider for Paris, changing its measurement method from the sensor at Charles de Gaulle airport to the one at Paris-Le Bourget airport.

Nevertheless, it did not terminate the agreements or provide refunds for the wagers, resulting in the finalized contracts, despite the fact that previously, it had paused the resolution of specific bets until more information about the rules and situations was obtained.

Decentralized ‘oracles’ and prediction markets

This event has brought back the discussion about the trustworthiness of the “oracles” that provide information to prediction markets for resolving wagers.

In the realm of decentralized finance, an oracle serves as the method through which real-world data is provided to a smart contract, influencing financial results.

Polymarket uses these data streams to finalize its contracts, typically accessing information directly from official government sites. Should the main source of this data become compromised, the betting platform has no built-in method to confirm the accuracy of the information.

Furthermore, the distributed structure of these platforms complicates the process of freezing assets, even when an inquiry determines the people involved in questionable transactions.

This is the most recent example that underscores a new area of white-collar crime, where altering the physical world is utilized to take advantage of the weaknesses in automated prediction markets to secure wins on real-life events.